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Weather Markets Edge Desk

com.predictionmarketspicks/weather · v1.0.0 · MCP 2026-07-28

Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.

Reachability reachable
checked 2026-09-20 05:33 UTC
Registry status active
Tools pinned 6
5352ac18a5c3
Tools last changed unchanged since first capture 2026-09-11
Repo last push 2026-09-17
GitHub stars 0

Provenance

Registry namespace com.predictionmarketspicks (domain verified by the official registry)
Repository github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp
Website https://predictionmarketspicks.com/weather
Remote endpoints
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp (streamable-http)

Observed changes

When (UTC)EventDetail
2026-09-11 05:30 first capture 6 tools pinned

Pinned tool definitions (6)

ToolDescription
edge_alerts Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in...
convert_probability Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to...
base_rate_gap Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected,...
bayes_update Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step...
calculate_ev Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL /...
kelly_size Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar...
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