Weather Markets Edge Desk
com.predictionmarketspicks/weather · v1.0.0 · MCP 2026-07-28
Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.
Reachability
reachable
checked 2026-09-20 05:33 UTC
Registry status active
Tools pinned 6
5352ac18a5c3
Tools last changed
unchanged since first capture 2026-09-11
Repo last push 2026-09-17
GitHub stars 0
Provenance
Registry namespace com.predictionmarketspicks
(domain verified by the official registry)
Repository
github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp
Remote endpoints
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp (streamable-http)
Observed changes
| When (UTC) | Event | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 05:30 | first capture | 6 tools pinned |
Pinned tool definitions (6)
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
| edge_alerts | Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in... |
| convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to... |
| base_rate_gap | Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected,... |
| bayes_update | Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step... |
| calculate_ev | Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL /... |
| kelly_size | Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar... |
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